The examples of "baseline skills" aren't good or relevant examples. Someone deploying a chatgpt command today to create a video of the same quality that would have taken an hour for a trained, professional video editor four years ago is not demonstrating a higher level of baseline skill. If not for chatgpt, that person wouldn't be able to create the same quality of video without the same practice and learning as the professional.
With cooking, just because someone makes something that _looks_ professional and posts it to their IG doesn't mean that they could recreate it consistently or that it even _tastes_ good. They also don't necessarily disclose how many attempts they made before they succeeded at the final product.
Now elite sports competition, those are higher level baselines, but not because humans are more athletic than they used to be, it's because on top of the same amount of training they do, they also have access to higher quality equipment and facilities, improved knowledge of nutritional science, better pre- and post-workout recovery methods. Elite swimmers started breaking decades-old records because new swimsuit fabric technology allowed them to achieve greater hydrodynamic efficiency with the same strokes and skill, it didn't just allow a person who never trained or competed to dive in and start breaking records.
Reading is also a baseline skill that seems to be getting worse, not better, with the advent and availability of intellectually assistive technology. Sure, you can ask chatgpt to generate a summary of pride and prejudice in lieu of reading it, which you could then memorize, but that doesn't improve your baseline skill of the ability to read, it makes it worse because the only way to get better at reading is to READ.
But maybe the title is intended as ironic rage bait and I've wasted 15 minutes of my time conveying some ways that baseline skills are not elevated from what they used to be.
I got the sense that the author was worried that the human generated, and algorithm processed, filtered, and regurgitated, feeds they feed their brains on would be replaced by AI assisted human generated slop and algorithm processed, filtered and and regurgitated feeds, thus reducing the perceived quality and value of those feeds.
The problem is the concept of the feed. Nobody should be using any social media feeds for anything. The algorithms are untrustworthy. I use youtube and substack, no other social media platforms. I subscribe to people/channels that I want to follow, and I check in on those when I get around to it. I subscribe to some online magazines and newspapers. I engage with no algorithmic feeds. I do scan comments on articles that I have read. And I occasionally follow links suggested by the persons I follow, which is what led me to this article.
we are watching the mass degradation of reality testing by western societies. there will be some weird time within the next 10-50 years where a large portion of the western population won't know how to do basic things without some kind of digital accessory.
I agree. I find the lede problematic “At some point in the future, something that is currently considered a high-level skill will be the baseline for everyone”. Thank you for debunking it and for putting much of what I was thinking into words.
What makes conforming content compelling to a mass audience eventually inures them to it. We tire easily and quickly. There will always be a way forward for skilled people. While the baseline shifts, often it falls and tips, leaving new places to explore.
This reminds me of my sister taking art lessons as a child. The teacher finished student my paintings to look b better to parents. When my sister painted at home, though, the difference was obvious. She was very upset! And stopped making art.
It isn't yours unless you can make it part of you.
Hmmm it seems like what was recently considered a baseline skill will be in the domain of geniuses, and may already be, like the ability to construct a sentence, a paragraph, or to know what comes before 6 and what comes after 7.
I worked in heavy industry for 25 plus years. Over the past 10 most definitely they have slowly been eliminating the knowledgeable base which would be mostly Gen x. This including making skilled trades a regular job. Sorry but you cannot do a skilled trade if you are not experienced in the field at least a little bit. No matter how hard you try you are not paying a dumb shit to be an electrician
"... at some point in the future, something that is currently considered a high-level skill will be the baseline for everyone. this applies to almost any industry but also any hobby. physical skills as well as digital."
Maybe. But we know for certain that some things that were a baseline skill for everyone are now considered high-level skills. Examples: driving a manual transmission car; use of logarithmic tables or long division; elegant cursive handwriting; programming computers in COBOL; building a plaster & lath wall; use of Morse code; building furniture using only wood, no metal or other fasteners; picking and eating wild mushrooms (without getting sick); laying down a drag bunt in baseball; ... .
History repeating itself considering how much more we know about so much now compared to what people did in the past - and by contrast, how much less expertise we do have in specific skills compared to our ancestors, such as knowledge end to end in artisanal practices, survival, and the arts
This is so accurate. For the last year or so I waffle between following the trend (even substack), and just living alone on my own URL, owned by no one, except me. Then I lost wifi, and i realized that I just wanted to write. I didn't want to create. Sure, who doesn't want to be popular? I resist automation. I resist writing AI slop, but still managed to turn my clean writing into a poem by Claude today. I remember when Google came out. It was such a high level skill. And now...it's part of the venacular. It's even a verb. Carry on.
Until the power is taken down from their AI search tool because their social credit score doesn't meet goverment muster!
God help everyone then when the ponder the complexity of striking a match after their butane lighter runs dry or worse … divining the mystery of making a fire from kindling, flint rock, and scrapes of metal.
on the point about skill vs output...i think there’s another layer here...
AI may NOT make someone a better editor/designer/developer/chef etc... but it can make the "first useful version" of something accessible to someone who previously couldn’t do it at all.
it may not be good enough to build a career around...but good enough to get the thing done. i think that’s the baseline thats definitely moving..
Not sure I agree here. Yes you're right some skillsets will advance. But other basic things will fall aside. How many people know how to code, vs change a flat tire? How many people know how to make good videos for youtube but call the plumber when a faucet leaks?
The examples of "baseline skills" aren't good or relevant examples. Someone deploying a chatgpt command today to create a video of the same quality that would have taken an hour for a trained, professional video editor four years ago is not demonstrating a higher level of baseline skill. If not for chatgpt, that person wouldn't be able to create the same quality of video without the same practice and learning as the professional.
With cooking, just because someone makes something that _looks_ professional and posts it to their IG doesn't mean that they could recreate it consistently or that it even _tastes_ good. They also don't necessarily disclose how many attempts they made before they succeeded at the final product.
Now elite sports competition, those are higher level baselines, but not because humans are more athletic than they used to be, it's because on top of the same amount of training they do, they also have access to higher quality equipment and facilities, improved knowledge of nutritional science, better pre- and post-workout recovery methods. Elite swimmers started breaking decades-old records because new swimsuit fabric technology allowed them to achieve greater hydrodynamic efficiency with the same strokes and skill, it didn't just allow a person who never trained or competed to dive in and start breaking records.
Reading is also a baseline skill that seems to be getting worse, not better, with the advent and availability of intellectually assistive technology. Sure, you can ask chatgpt to generate a summary of pride and prejudice in lieu of reading it, which you could then memorize, but that doesn't improve your baseline skill of the ability to read, it makes it worse because the only way to get better at reading is to READ.
But maybe the title is intended as ironic rage bait and I've wasted 15 minutes of my time conveying some ways that baseline skills are not elevated from what they used to be.
I got the sense that the author was worried that the human generated, and algorithm processed, filtered, and regurgitated, feeds they feed their brains on would be replaced by AI assisted human generated slop and algorithm processed, filtered and and regurgitated feeds, thus reducing the perceived quality and value of those feeds.
The problem is the concept of the feed. Nobody should be using any social media feeds for anything. The algorithms are untrustworthy. I use youtube and substack, no other social media platforms. I subscribe to people/channels that I want to follow, and I check in on those when I get around to it. I subscribe to some online magazines and newspapers. I engage with no algorithmic feeds. I do scan comments on articles that I have read. And I occasionally follow links suggested by the persons I follow, which is what led me to this article.
Well put.
👏🏼👏🏼
we are watching the mass degradation of reality testing by western societies. there will be some weird time within the next 10-50 years where a large portion of the western population won't know how to do basic things without some kind of digital accessory.
I agree. I find the lede problematic “At some point in the future, something that is currently considered a high-level skill will be the baseline for everyone”. Thank you for debunking it and for putting much of what I was thinking into words.
What makes conforming content compelling to a mass audience eventually inures them to it. We tire easily and quickly. There will always be a way forward for skilled people. While the baseline shifts, often it falls and tips, leaving new places to explore.
This reminds me of my sister taking art lessons as a child. The teacher finished student my paintings to look b better to parents. When my sister painted at home, though, the difference was obvious. She was very upset! And stopped making art.
It isn't yours unless you can make it part of you.
Perhaps the title is beyond that, I was thinking skills such as telepathy when I read it!
For example:
Spelling
Manners
Using turn indicators
Putting the shopping carts away
Not littering
Wiping down the gym gear you just used
Returning your tray
Oh, if only….👍🏼🙏🏼
Hmmm it seems like what was recently considered a baseline skill will be in the domain of geniuses, and may already be, like the ability to construct a sentence, a paragraph, or to know what comes before 6 and what comes after 7.
58 is a very low and rare golf score. Perhaps you’re on to something.
This is just nonsense
I occasionally attempt to maintain relevance by posting photographs of my dogs.
decent people are a crowning achievement of canines.
I worked in heavy industry for 25 plus years. Over the past 10 most definitely they have slowly been eliminating the knowledgeable base which would be mostly Gen x. This including making skilled trades a regular job. Sorry but you cannot do a skilled trade if you are not experienced in the field at least a little bit. No matter how hard you try you are not paying a dumb shit to be an electrician
Very true we need people that are skilled with there hands
There there- we also need basic literacy - which is it? “There” “they’re” or “their”?
Also, in the original article, the writer may have meant too and not to - that’s the only way I could get sense from it.
"... at some point in the future, something that is currently considered a high-level skill will be the baseline for everyone. this applies to almost any industry but also any hobby. physical skills as well as digital."
Maybe. But we know for certain that some things that were a baseline skill for everyone are now considered high-level skills. Examples: driving a manual transmission car; use of logarithmic tables or long division; elegant cursive handwriting; programming computers in COBOL; building a plaster & lath wall; use of Morse code; building furniture using only wood, no metal or other fasteners; picking and eating wild mushrooms (without getting sick); laying down a drag bunt in baseball; ... .
Things change. People learn different skills.
So glad you have a "Recently launched" section.
For a long time now I've been wondering "what will Substack do to support really successful people?"
Struggling writers are... ugh... so annoying, right?
History repeating itself considering how much more we know about so much now compared to what people did in the past - and by contrast, how much less expertise we do have in specific skills compared to our ancestors, such as knowledge end to end in artisanal practices, survival, and the arts
Exactly… it’s concerning really
I seem to be drawn to a simpler life, while social media is filled with lives far more colorful than mine. Maybe that’s why I rarely post anymore.
This is so accurate. For the last year or so I waffle between following the trend (even substack), and just living alone on my own URL, owned by no one, except me. Then I lost wifi, and i realized that I just wanted to write. I didn't want to create. Sure, who doesn't want to be popular? I resist automation. I resist writing AI slop, but still managed to turn my clean writing into a poem by Claude today. I remember when Google came out. It was such a high level skill. And now...it's part of the venacular. It's even a verb. Carry on.
Oh, and did I mention that the average grad student reads just above the 9th grade level and has the same equivalent in vocabulary skills?
But they are well versed in nonsense and dei, Marxist ideology and sheer stupidity.
Until the power is taken down from their AI search tool because their social credit score doesn't meet goverment muster!
God help everyone then when the ponder the complexity of striking a match after their butane lighter runs dry or worse … divining the mystery of making a fire from kindling, flint rock, and scrapes of metal.
on the point about skill vs output...i think there’s another layer here...
AI may NOT make someone a better editor/designer/developer/chef etc... but it can make the "first useful version" of something accessible to someone who previously couldn’t do it at all.
it may not be good enough to build a career around...but good enough to get the thing done. i think that’s the baseline thats definitely moving..
Not sure I agree here. Yes you're right some skillsets will advance. But other basic things will fall aside. How many people know how to code, vs change a flat tire? How many people know how to make good videos for youtube but call the plumber when a faucet leaks?
Here's a challenge ... there is a field of wheat ready to harvest. That's it. NOTHING else except a well nearby with clean water and NO AI anything.
The kids are crying because they are hungry.
Now go make some bread.
Done! I'm into this bigtime! Benefits of being a farm kid. I can fix anything, grow anything, butcher anything, and love doing it.
I think duality is important in this.
You ... will survive ... good.
What on Earth does “kinda chic to” mean?